Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 215.079150 265.742675 330.273663 420.435170 546.420657 7.215321e+02 9.936119e+02
2025-02-02 165.146151 224.982949 312.578255 457.230923 706.079662 1.153465e+03 2.130204e+03
2025-02-09 136.184724 198.242848 298.415409 486.005340 868.657524 1.739284e+03 4.480480e+03
2025-02-16 116.006669 177.289063 283.762488 504.076746 1023.625751 2.499504e+03 9.511740e+03
2025-02-23 101.117895 160.548929 270.072790 516.402189 1177.118923 3.509135e+03 2.164442e+04
2025-03-02 87.374843 142.504773 248.471894 501.944015 1253.377082 4.442641e+03 4.632652e+04
2025-03-09 76.747593 127.981762 229.992488 487.259068 1321.464652 5.555784e+03 1.126644e+05
2025-03-16 67.712856 114.867298 211.370362 465.227757 1351.657238 6.627845e+03 3.001125e+05
2025-03-23 65.389993 114.338465 219.562579 518.681527 1723.584058 1.182705e+04 2.408167e+07
2025-03-30 60.544312 107.882154 212.852149 526.671823 1920.840031 1.721090e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 57.267066 104.159248 211.752176 552.209656 2250.178658 2.902586e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 52.706952 97.037458 200.848503 540.916822 2366.392644 3.985313e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 51.663683 97.686784 210.448652 610.132428 3170.539964 1.186903e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 50.025878 96.766091 215.857077 668.833537 4111.110535 4.745550e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 48.060774 94.776646 217.877510 716.290253 5172.888356 3.742089e+06 NaN
2025-05-11 45.779922 91.694666 216.046632 746.525312 6232.505790 4.552961e+08 NaN
2025-05-18 43.490094 88.276027 212.475460 767.306765 7344.213549 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 40.488402 82.720934 201.213099 742.907358 7639.688547 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 37.796713 77.668671 190.702973 718.259852 7893.610031 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 35.146506 72.461721 178.878778 681.533909 7790.451704 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 34.975488 73.607540 187.967905 771.157768 11538.831737 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 33.511358 71.191534 184.668991 784.704306 13494.613895 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 32.575858 70.081275 185.687624 828.254842 17505.214151 NaN NaN